Please send comments to: andrzej (at_sign) mazurkiewicz (small_dot) org

Displayed: 2020-08-06 18:44:16

Current data on coronavirus - (change of the country)

The data is refreshed daily.

Mexico , last data from 2020-08-05

Table of contents

Processed data. Graphs rather obvious, however rarily displayed.
The most interesting part - indexes.
Source data
Method of processing
Additional background popular reading and watching

The graphs below have been created thanks to a courtesy of the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at John Hopkins University (USA). This institution has provided data related to Covid-19 incidences for almost all countries in the world. The source data is updated daily and is available on the portal github.com.
New graphs are available daily at about 6 AM of CET.
Use it. Misuse it but leave my reference.

Introduction

I would like to deliver a bit of material making possible to make own conclusions about the situation with coronavirus. Something that usually unavailable in a bla-bla of mass media.
This material needs some attention. Also a bit of mathematical culture, I think at most at secondary school level.
The order of the data results from the desire to present the most important charts at the beginning.
Please start from ‘The most interesting part - indexes’.
Next please movve to ‘Processed data. Graphs rather obvious, however rarily displayed.’.
A, so called, information delivered by the mass media, i. e. ‘Source data’, is used by scribblers to brain-wash people.
Everybody is being bombed by messages that a number of total infections/deaths reached ....
Guys relax! This is not important!
And what is?
- Most important is that we have encountered with a hysteria mainipulated by the mass media. The big pharma is vitally interested in the hysteria.
  I recommend
  - Thoughts of a russian epidemiologist - pandemic of panics and hysteria.
  - Return to 2009 and read about swine flu hysteria and the mass media forcing Ewa Kopacz, a polish Ministry of Health to buy new vaccines prepared in a rush. Mrs Kopacz refused to buy those vaccines and required the big pharma companys to take whole responisbility for the side effects.
    Several months later, I read in newspapers that the governments of Germany, France and Great Brittain spent really big money for utilization of dozens of millions vaccines.
    The case was spiced up by a german program or article (I think that in the Frankfurter Allgemeiner Zeitung) showing biznes connections between the big pharma and officers of the WHO.
    ‘historia magistra vitae est’. For all?
- Important is that the deaths ‘caused by coronavirus’ are caused by pneumonia. An there is a number of deaths cases with pneumonia in normal situation. Most death cases related to other chronic diseases.
- There is much bigger number of deaths in car accidents.
- Independently of what is communicated to people, humans are mortal.
- When we return at last to coronavirus, the most important indexes are: a number of current carriers (infected people that infect others) and a difference between new infections and new recoveries. Please take into account that a death rate (per carriers) is about 0.3 - 0.5 %. If the latter number is bigger for a certain area, it needs to have a closer look to the data and to the medical practices in this area.
Additional background popular reading and watching
- For people interested in comparisons among countries I recommend the following articles:
  - in BBC ‘Coronavirus: Why are international comparisons difficult?’.
  - in Der Spiegel Warum Covid-19 New York so viel härter getroffen hat als Hongkong
  - in spanish ‘La Razon’ ¿Por qué Bélgica es el país con el récord de muertes por millón de habitantes?
- As regards to influence of age, finacial status, race (strictly speaking again financial status) on certain numbers in graphs I recomment an article in russian Izvestia about influence of race and as a consequence financial situation on a death rate.
I have prepared graphs for most countries. The source data for the USA, China and several other countries is prepared in a different structures. There are no graphs prepared for them yet. If you need graphs, please send me a mail.
In you have comments please mail to ‘andrzej (at_sigh) mazurkiewicz (small_dot) org’

Denotations on graphs:

brown line - infections,
green line - recoveries,
red line - deaths,
dashed line (-------) - graph in a logarithmic scale,
continuous line - graph in a linear scale,
bar graphs use the linear scale,
dotted line (........) - a smoothed data, almost allways in the linear scale.

1. Processed data. Graphs rather obvious, however rarily displayed.

The processed data cover a state (current number of infected people) and changes of a state (numbers of new daily infections, recoveries an deaths respectively).

A current number of coronavirus carriers

A figure below has two scales: a linear one on the left-hand side, a logarithmic one on the righ-hand.

Since an illness distribution process is exponencial by its nature, during the first phase of the epidemic, when a number of carriers increases rapidly, changes of the trend are clearly visible.

When external situation is stable a logarithmic graph consists of line segments. When the situation changes the last segment stops and next one with a different angle starts.

The changes might be like: introducing sanitary limitations, loosing them, closing schools, closing part of enterprises, other actions enabling more frecuent contact of people.

New infections and recoveries (daily)

Mortality - deaths per current carriers

Comments to the mortality.

The deaths have been omitted in the previous figure on purpose.

The death rate in many countries is below 0.4 %. If there are countries with the death rate above 7 %, it smells. Either their statistics is being falsified or doctors state coronavirus as a death reason not having any basis for it. I do not believe that in a group of countries with similat level of living, death rate varies from 0.4 % up to 20 - 30 times higher values.

I have also encountered information that families members as well as directors of medical units asked to/ insisted on reporting the coronavirus as the reason of the death.

I suspect that simple pneumonia would cause lower payments from the social security. Smart people are in every country!

Daily infections and deaths

Smoothed graphs, NORMALIZED TO THIS SAME SIZE indicate after how many days infected person dies (if dies of course).

For Poland it lookes like the deaths occure approximately 4 - 6 days after testing of the infection.

Pay attention to scales on the lef-hand and the right-hand axes!!!

Todays infections and deaths smoothed - Covid-19

2. The most interesting part - indexes.

The most interesting part. More processed data.

New infections rate and recovery rate (per current number of carriers)

Crossing of the charts would mean that the number of people getting infected every day will equal the number of recoveries. I skip deaths here as something that is relatively small (about 0.3 % for Poland).

It means also that a maximum number of current carriers has been reached and probably the number of carriers will start to drop.

3. Source data

This is a data used by mass media to brain-wash people. Everybody is bombed by messages that total number of infected has reached .... Guys relax. This is not important.

And what is?

Important are: current number of covid carriers and difference among new infections, new recoveries. Please take into account that usually a death rate is on level of 0.3 - 0.4 %. If it is higher, the question is why. It is necessary to have a closer look to the data and find a rational reason for the difference.

Please ref. to the ‘The most interesting part - indexes’.

CSSE JHU has released the following data:

total number of infections (since the begining of the epidemic),
total deaths associated to coronavirus (an exact reason might be a question mark),
total recovered.

Total infected and recovered

Total deaths associated with the coronavirus

4. Method of processing

The processing is shown on the following picture. Infections, recoveries and deaths

Red blocks relate to the source information from CSSE of JHU. Other information has to be computed. This is a simplest model of course.

The model

carriers_today = total_infected_today - total_deaths_today - total_recovered_today

daily_infections_today = total_infected_today - total_infected_yesterday

daily_deaths_today = total_deaths_today - total_deaths_yesterday

daily_recoveries_today = total_recoveries_today - total_recoveries_yesterday

Possible development of more complex models

There are at least two approaches to more complex model:

Taking into account a size of a country and different phase of the epidemic for a different area. For i Chiny, data is delivered in provinces. For the USA, data is deliverd for counties and towns.
Taking into account income level.

However it depends on readers. No interested persons - no wasting time for other models development.