Covid-19 current data         Please send comments to: andrzej (at_sign) mazurkiewicz (small_dot) org       
Displayed: 2020-08-14 14:06:11

Current data on coronavirus - (change of the country)

The data is refreshed daily.

Israel , last data from 2020-08-13

Table of contents
  1. Processed data. Graphs rather obvious, however rarily displayed.
  2. The most interesting part - indexes.
  3. Source data
  4. Method of processing
  5. Additional background popular reading and watching
  • The graphs below have been created thanks to a courtesy of the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at John Hopkins University (USA). This institution has provided data related to Covid-19 incidences for almost all countries in the world. The source data is updated daily and is available on the portal github.com.
  • New graphs are available daily at about 6 AM of CET.
  • Use it. Misuse it but leave my reference.

Introduction

Denotations on graphs:

1. Processed data. Graphs rather obvious, however rarily displayed.

The processed data cover a state (current number of infected people) and changes of a state (numbers of new daily infections, recoveries an deaths respectively).

A current number of coronavirus carriers

A figure below has two scales: a linear one on the left-hand side, a logarithmic one on the righ-hand.

Since an illness distribution process is exponencial by its nature, during the first phase of the epidemic, when a number of carriers increases rapidly, changes of the trend are clearly visible.

When external situation is stable a logarithmic graph consists of line segments. When the situation changes the last segment stops and next one with a different angle starts.

The changes might be like: introducing sanitary limitations, loosing them, closing schools, closing part of enterprises, other actions enabling more frecuent contact of people.

Bieżąca liczba nosicieli Covid-19

New infections and recoveries (daily)

>Infections and recoveries daily

Mortality - deaths per current carriers

Comments to the mortality.

The deaths have been omitted in the previous figure on purpose.

The death rate in many countries is below 0.4 %. If there are countries with the death rate above 7 %, it smells. Either their statistics is being falsified or doctors state coronavirus as a death reason not having any basis for it. I do not believe that in a group of countries with similat level of living, death rate varies from 0.4 % up to 20 - 30 times higher values.

I have also encountered information that families members as well as directors of medical units asked to/ insisted on reporting the coronavirus as the reason of the death.

I suspect that simple pneumonia would cause lower payments from the social security. Smart people are in every country!

Mortality rate - Covid-19

Daily infections and deaths

Daily infections and deaths - Covid-19

Smoothed graphs, NORMALIZED TO THIS SAME SIZE indicate after how many days infected person dies (if dies of course).

For Poland it lookes like the deaths occure approximately 4 - 6 days after testing of the infection.

Pay attention to scales on the lef-hand and the right-hand axes!!!

Todays infections and deaths smoothed -  Covid-19

2. The most interesting part - indexes.

The most interesting part. More processed data.

New infections rate and recovery rate (per current number of carriers)

Crossing of the charts would mean that the number of people getting infected every day will equal the number of recoveries. I skip deaths here as something that is relatively small (about 0.3 % for Poland).

It means also that a maximum number of current carriers has been reached and probably the number of carriers will start to drop.

Bieżąca liczba nosicieli Covid-19

3. Source data

This is a data used by mass media to brain-wash people. Everybody is bombed by messages that total number of infected has reached .... Guys relax. This is not important.

And what is?

Important are: current number of covid carriers and difference among new infections, new recoveries. Please take into account that usually a death rate is on level of 0.3 - 0.4 %. If it is higher, the question is why. It is necessary to have a closer look to the data and find a rational reason for the difference.

Please ref. to the ‘The most interesting part - indexes’.

CSSE JHU has released the following data:

Total infected and recovered

Total infected and recovered - Covid-19

Total deaths associated with the coronavirus

Total deaths - Covid-19

4. Method of processing

The processing is shown on the following picture. Infections, recoveries and deaths

Red blocks relate to the source information from CSSE of JHU. Other information has to be computed. This is a simplest model of course.

The model

carrierstoday = total_infectedtoday - total_deathstoday - total_recoveredtoday

daily_infectionstoday = total_infectedtoday - total_infectedyesterday

daily_deathstoday = total_deathstoday - total_deathsyesterday

daily_recoveriestoday = total_recoveriestoday - total_recoveriesyesterday

Possible development of more complex models

There are at least two approaches to more complex model:

However it depends on readers. No interested persons - no wasting time for other models development.

Thank you for your attention!
Andrzej Mazurkiewicz